To recap: I signed up this year to be part of Brenda Novak's auction for diabetes research. It's a REALLY good cause, especially since I'm at risk for it myself (I'm insulin-resistant).

I agreed to read a proposal.

When my auction was being purchased for about $280, I declared war on Nathan Bransford.

And today, I went to the auction site, when it ended, and found out...

... that somebody had purchased my services for $1150. I am flabbergasted. Honored and flabbergasted at the exact same time. My husband says I am clearly in the wrong line of work, and should be working as a freelance editor instead; I reminded him that good agents have a strict code of ethics and that I have no desire to go against it.

But damn.

Thank you, whoever you are, alextill. You've bought a lot of good research with your purchase. =)

And Nathan didn't do too badly for himself either... he was bought for $913.

Which means that the two of us earned over $2000 combined. And that's not even counting all the other fabulous agents who were part of the auction as well. We should declare war next year again!

So thank you, everyone who participated. I feel entirely warm and fuzzy right now because you've done a very good deed. =)

I seem to be in the habit of doing con reports lately (almost typed "book reports" there), so here, have an abbreviated one for my day at BEA. I am exhausted, by the way. Came home, went to Cheeburger Cheeburger with Chris, watched Britain's Got Talent finale, and now to bed.

The con report, in bullet form:

• Full of books! But not as many books as in years past.
• Full of Twitter friends! Met the wonderful Colleen Lindsay and her friend from Washington, whose name is Adrien, I believe. Finally met Alyssa of the red trench coat, after searching for her for part of the day. =)
• I now have an ARC of FIRE by Kristen Cashore. Not signed, as I got there too late for that, but I begged one from the Penguin people. I am good at begging. See next point.
• I adore Brandon Sanderson, who not only remembered me, but let me take two books--one for me and one for Jodi. Brandon is good people. He signed both.
  
• I realized it had been THREE years since I had last seen Brandon. He lives in Utah, for pete's sake. Then, I went to go see George Mann and get his book, on his signing line. I see George more often than I see Brandon, and George lives in freaking England. What is wrong with this picture?
• Let's see, more books! Collected various ARCs that interested me, plus talked to people at various booths.
• Discovered that JJA's name is like a magic password...hey, it's good to be the agent!
  
• Found Ron Hogan and said hello.
• Went to a sci-fi panel that I didn't know was happening: saw China Mieville, John Ringo (in a kilt), and Kelly Link speak. Got China to sign my book.
• Discovered that tons and tons of friends and accquaintances were at said panel with me. Yay!
• Discovered that Kelly and her husband Gavin had had a baby, Ursula, and the proud papa showed me a picture of her. She is beautiful and tiny. =)
• Discovered my friend Lee was at BEA! So happy!
• Finally met Nick Mamatas in person--the world did not end.
• Got invited to a Baen meet-and-greet.
• Went there. Talked to more fascinating people. Met the science fiction & fantasy buyer, Jim, from B&N. I like him. Saw Tom Doherty as I was walking out and told him how much I adore Tor. Talked to too many other people to name, not least including, Toni Weiskopf, Jim Minz, Alethea Kontis (Lee!), Stephen Segal, and many others. I like my SF clansfolk.
• Found out, right before leaving the Baen party, that the Viz people were not coming back for their books (this is what happens at the end of BEA, btw, where most of the companies let people take the floor displays, etc. Usually on Sunday.)
• Hence, swooped up lots of manga and the two new SF novels that were translated from Japanese, all courtesy of Viz.
• Happy end to a tired day.

Good night. =)

This is more for my reference, than for anything else. 25 seen, 25 to go.

Just a reminder: If you'd like me to attend a conference and you're in one of the states I haven't visited... you have a better chance of me going! =) Yay for liking to travel and see everything!


visited 25 states (50%)
Create your own visited map of The United States or vertaling nederlands duits?

Which is an odd post title, but sometimes you read blog posts at 1:45am, and realize that one of your favorite writers is just that much more awesome for her political beliefs.

One of the best blog posts I've ever read about Proposition 8

I was all excited about these two deals. Quite excited, in fact. And I e-mailed them off yesterday, so that there wouldn't be ANY confusion about the wording, like in the past, and so that they would be posted EXACTLY as I had written.

But the idiots over at Publisher's Marketplace (and I do indeed think they are idiots, in this matter), have somehow decided that neither anthology is FICTION, but is instead, NON-FICTION. Because you know, mad scientists, evil geniuses, and WIZARDS exist in the real world.

I have e-mailed them to see if they will correct it, and not look like idiots anymore.

		May 27, 2009
		Non-fiction: Anthology		John Joseph Adams's THE WAY OF THE WIZARD, a mixed reprint/original anthology featuring tales of magic and mayhem from bestselling authors, to Sean Wallace at Prime Books, in a nice deal, by Jenny Rappaport of The Rappaport Agency (World English). jenny@rappaportagency.com
		May 27, 2009
		Non-fiction: Anthology		John Joseph Adams's THE MAD SCIENTIST'S GUIDE TO WORLD DOMINATION, an all-original anthology featuring superhero stories narrated by mad scientists and evil geniuses, including new work from several NYT bestselling authors, to James Frenkel at Tor, in a nice deal, by Jenny Rappaport of The Rappaport Agency on behalf of the L. Perkins Agency (World English). jenny@rappaportagency.com

THE MAD SCIENTIST'S GUIDE TO WORLD DOMINATION, by the way, was Book A from the blog post of a few weeks ago. John was so wonderfully patient about the fact that it took fifteen months that somewhere along the way I promised I'd make him a mad scientists cake. We will be researching options and pictures will eventually be posted here... =)

I am about to run out the door to meetings and BEA stuff, but my lovely client, Carol Pinchefsky, has requested that I post this. Carol is one of the contest editors at The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction, and informs me that you have TWO days left to enter this. Follow the instructions below!

COMPETITION #78:
THE SECRET HISTORY OF F&SF

Fantasy & Science Fiction magazine, originally titled The Magazine of Fantasy, was founded in 1949 by Anthony Boucher and J. Francis McComas…or was it? Describe, in 50 words or less, the secret origins of F&SF. Alternate histories, imagined conversations, and science-fictional (or magical) twists on the truth are more than welcome. Another welcomed element: funny.

Example:

Shirley Jackson and Theodore Sturgeon leave a little basket on the doorstep of Anthony Boucher with a tear-stained note: “Please take care of our baby. Raise it as if it were your own.”


You have six chances to rewrite history before midnight EST, May 28th. Send your entries to carol@cybrid.net.

Please remember to include your telephone number and snail-mail address.

PRIZES: First prize will receive a sub- scription to F&SF good for the next sixty years along with a copy of The Diamond Jubilee. Second prize will receive advance reading copies of three forthcoming novels. Any runners-up will receive one-year subscriptions to F&SF. Results of Competition 78 will appear in the Oct/Nov. 2009 issue.

Judges are the editors of F&SF, and their decision is final. All entries become the property of F&SF.

You all seem very silent lately! Let me know what's on your mind!

I am happy to announce that THE BURNING SKIES by David J. Williams has now been out for an entire week! That means it should now be at a local brick and mortar bookstore by you, as well as available for ordering on Amazon.com and many other online stores.

It is a wonderful sequel to Dave's first book, THE MIRRORED HEAVENS.

As Dave first described it to me, "It makes THE MIRRORED HEAVENS look like a particularly civilized tea party." There is intrigue and action, plus some great character development, as Autumn Rain continues to fight... this time, in space!

I should preface this post by the slight reminder that I am out-of-shape, and I have fibromyalgia, which does not take to unexpected exercise very well.

Saturday dawned bright and early, and I even wrote a blog post! I went and had a nice breakfast with John Joseph Adams, Ted Kosmatka, and John's friend, the infamous Rob. Rob actually has a last name, which is Rob Bland, but I had heard John talking about how cool and awesome Rob was for... god knows how many months... and I couldn't remember ever meeting him (although it turns out I had, in March 2008). Which is why Rob has gotten stuck in my head as "the infamous Rob", and it turns out that he is actually just as cool and awesome as John said.

Anyway!

After breakfast, which started at 9:30am, I had a scheduled lunch with Jim Frenkel, one of the editors I do business with... at 11:30am. Saturday was scheduled to be the day of eating.

Met Jim, had a good lunch with him, and then walked back to the hotel. At which point my stomach started being unhappy, which is actually not the fault of ANYONE I had eaten with, but more the fact that my digestive system likes to have its quirks.

So I retreated to my hotel room and slept for a long, long time on Saturday. Woke up finally in time for the Tiptree auction and the parties (I was underwhelmed by the auction, but also, not feeling particularly great still.) I made the rounds of the parties with Holly and Jodi, as well as our friend Laurel and her husband Chris. They were tremendous amounts of fun, particularly getting to meet new people and see old ones--I could name names, but it might be too many. Suffice it to say that I was happy to see my friend Erin who had come all the way from California, and I was also happy to see my friend Ben who had come all the way from Switzerland. And to meet many more people, including Mary Anne Mohanraj (spelling?), who I learned is the author of a choose-your-own adventure erotic novel, which I now feel compelled to find and read. Out of pure curiosity.

Holly and Jodi and I finally made it back to our room at 3:30am, at which point Holly decided we were doing aerobics. We were not drunk. We were just insane. Or rather Holly and Jodi were insane, since they did the ENTIRE workout, and I only did part of it.

I cannot tell you what part of my brain compelled me to join in for a third of the workout, but I think I'd like to disinherit that part. My legs hurt. It is now Tuesday morning and my legs STILL hurt. Good night aerobics are NOT A GOOD IDEA.

Happily, although my legs still hurt terribly on Sunday and Monday, my stomach was feeling better. I went to some panels, discovered that Jack McDevitt is a very interesting man to listen to, met many more new people, and went to the Tiptree ceremony and dessert buffet.

Which is the point in the convention when I realized that I felt very out-of-my-element.

I was sitting at a table with some very nice people. And they were discussing how they had gone to Wiscon for decades, and they were all much, much older than me. And although they were very nice, I suddenly felt trapped. I had nothing in common with any of them, other than a love of science fiction. I didn't believe in the same things they were talking about. It's a very hard thing to quantify because they were completely and totally nice individuals. But I didn't belong.

And then there were the Wiscon guest of honor speeches, which were both lovely. Geoff Ryman was serious and intelligent; Ellen Klages was hilarious because well, it's Ellen Klages. And Ellen started talking about how she had come to Wiscon seventeen years ago, and she had finally felt like she had found her tribe. And I realized that this wasn't really my tribe.

I don't know what my tribe is, but this year's Wiscon wasn't it.

I enjoyed myself at the convention. I enjoyed seeing friends I hadn't seen in a long time. I enjoyed meeting one of my favorite authors, Patricia Wrede, and discussing sock knitting with her. But I don't know if it's just because I have different priorities in life or because I like different things or because I just feel that the graying of science fiction conventions is something that makes me feel very alienated at times. Or maybe I'm just a different type of feminist, and I have different priorities in life.

So I left the convention and made my way back to the airport on Monday with John Joseph Adams, Rob, and Genevieve Valentine (who is lovely, although I hadn't met her before Wiscon), since we all had the same flight. And we went out to dinner at the airport and hung out and joked around... and that was when I really felt that that was my tribe Or my kind of people. Or at least, people I enjoy being with and potentially being friends with. And I don't know if Wiscon will ever be that for me.

I may come back to it. I may not come back to it. But this is my con report about it.

I am nothing, if not honest. =)

After much mishaps involving flights and the Cleveland airport and the utter horror that is Great American Bagel... I arrived at Wiscon yesterday after having been awake for seventeen straight hours.

I checked in. I found my roommates. I attended the Gathering, which was neat and full of wonderful stuff and a lovely woman named Shira gave me not one, but TWO cookies, which sustained me nicely. And then I decided that I really needed to sleep, and went to nap for ~3 hours.

Woke up. Was dragged, sleepily, to noodles and company. For future reference, do not believe them when they say their pad thai is not spicy. Came back with my crowd, met Jim Frenkel in the lobby (a Madison native), who informed us that there were so many good restaurants in Madison that we were simply not allowed to eat at a chain again. =)

Napped again, thus completely missing the opening ceremonies. I needed the second nap though, really did.

Woke up, part two! Went to the sixth floor where there were parties! Saw an entire room of people singing along to Dr. Horrible, which was playing on a small TV. While the sight was cool, I was unable to muster enthusiasm to stay there, when I own Dr. Horrible already and can sing along to it any time I want (I do not).

So we went across the hallway to the party for Galaxycon, which is from Minneapolis. And met up with some of my other friends who I hadn't seen in ages, and enjoyed much needed caffeine in the form of a can of real Coke. =) No diet for me, no siree! And although there was some cheese at the Galaxycon party, which I was assured was very nice...it did not look like the kind of cheese I would enjoy. I am very picky about the cheese I eat, and tend towards hard or semisoft varieties--this looked distinctly soft. Not that soft cheese is a bad thing, but it's not the right cheese for me.

After that, I wandered off to the lovely Elise's haiku earring party, and am now the owner of a cute pair of earrings--which Elise tells me are really stylized Chinese bats. You picked a pair of earrings, brought them to Elise, she told you the title of the earrings, and then you had to write a haiku to that title.

My very quick haiku, which probably could have been better... (the title is Elise's).

Happiness on Wings
by Jenny Rae Rappaport

Imperial wing
Dark against the summer sky
Cool jade brought to flight

After that, I met my client, Anne Harris, in the hallway, and had a lovely time talking to her and her friend JJ (last name escapes me, sorry!). We eventually ended up in the bar for awhile, where I got a chocolate martini (good!), which then eventually killed me because I was still so tired. And then bed, eventually!

For future reference, my roommates at Wiscon are Jodi Meadows, my assistant and friend, and our friend, Holly McDowell.

As Holly is now almost done getting ready, it's my turn to go make myself presentable, before I go have breakfast with two of my clients--Ted Kosmatka and John Joseph Adams.

More later!

(See, I'm making good on my promise to blog!) =)

Like half the science fiction and fantasy community, I was roped into attending Wiscon many months ago. I had never been. I kept citing excuses like it was too close to BEA (which I need to attend), or that the fact that it was a feminist convention scared me (I took college courses with *angry feminists*; they are somewhat frightening).

But no, my glorious assistant, Jodi Meadows, roped me into going somehow.

So Wisconsin, here I come--in about twelve hours! I'm deliberately keeping the convention relatively low-key, since I come home and go pretty much straight to BEA. Then, after BEA, I go right to Odyssey. Right about now, I feel my head is about to explode from so much stuff to do before I leave for that.

Hence the really, really light blogging lately.

I will attempt to write some blog posts about Wiscon. I'll also be doing blog posts for Odyssey, when I get there.

And in the meantime, in the two weeks until I go to New Hampshire... I invite you all to give me topics to write about! Suggest a topic in the comments! I can't promise that I'll answer all the topics, but I'll pick the ones that interest me, and get at least a few blog posts written up.

Comment away!

PS. I am sad that Adam Lambert didn't win American Idol. But at the same time, I am happy that he won't be saddled with the baggage that goes with being the winner. And I've discovered that the new Green Day album heals my soul. Thank you, Green Day. =)

I liked both Adam Lambert and Kris Allen tonight, although I would prefer that Adam win. I'll buy both their CDs though.

And OMG, how much awesome is GLEE? It is seriously wonderful. I laughed, I sang along, I grabbed the cat at the end and danced around my living room. (The cat was not pleased.)

I cannot wait for it this fall.

Sound off with your thoughts, but remember to keep it civil! =)

*wanders off to sing Journey along with iTunes*

Starred review of FEDERATIONS edited by John Joseph Adams in its entirety, from Publisher's Weekly.

You can order the book now and find it in your local brick and mortar stores!

Federations Edited by John Joseph Adams. Prime (www.prime-books.com), $14.95 paper (384p) ISBN 978-1-60701-201-6

Accomplished editor Adams (The Living Dead) explores a host of galaxy-spanning empires in this breathtakingly rich anthology. Lois McMaster Bujold’s elegant, elegiacal masterpiece “Aftermaths” brings grace and sorrow into the silence between stars. Clever and subtle, Alan Dean Foster’s “Pardon Our Conquest” examines how diplomacy is perceived by the losing side. Even Harry Turtledove’s “Someone Is Stealing the Great Throne Rooms of the Galaxy” far surpasses what one might expect from the pun-filled adventures of a space hamster named Rufus Q. Shupilluliumash. Newer writers also contribute standouts: Trent Hergenrader’s “Eskhara” is poignant, masterful and terrifyingly relevant to modern life, Georgina Li’s “Like They Always Been Free” is a harsh, bright vision of futuristic love and Catherynne M. Valente’s “Golubush, or Wine-Blood-War-Elegy” smoothly transforms mundane copywriting into a linked series of flash fictions. Superior writing, fantastic storytelling and creative adherence to the theme will keep readers enthralled. (July)

Hello dear friends. I have a favor to ask. Do any of you have a spare Dreamwidth code? If so, could you please e-mail me? Thank you much! Comments are closed. =)

ETA: I have gotten a code from someone. Thank you all for your wonderful sending of e-mails, but I don't need a code anymore. Gomen! =)

And now, a happier post, before I go back to e-mail land!

Can I tell you how much I'm loving the contrast of American Idol and Britain's Got Talent this season? First, I've always loved American Idol from the very beginning, and I am totally loving Adam Lambert this season in all his unabashed glam and glory. But Simon Cowell seems to get more and more bored and snarky doing the show, and it seems... tired.

And then along comes Britain's Got Talent, brought to my attention via Susan Boyle, and now I'm totally addicted to that too. But the difference is that Britain's Got Talent is NOT boring. It's not that it's more than singing because I really do love singing and singers, etc. It's that it's brilliantly edited, it humanizes everyone, even the really, really bad people, and Simon Cowell seems NICE. He winks at little kids. He oohs at little kids. He's kind to people. He has facial expressions of ACTUAL JOY. And when you combine a somewhat-nice Simon Cowell along with Piers Morgan and Amanda Holden, plus the brilliant editing, and the hosts, Ant and Dec.... you totally get a show that fills a hole in today's pop culture vortex.

I've often explained to people that the reason I watch American Idol is that it's like a giant cultural vortex that sucks me in emotionally. It doesn't matter if you like low-brow culture, high-brow culture, or something in the middle--you can unite over the television set every Tuesday. Which is how it's been for eight seasons so far.

But now that I've watched Britain's Got Talent, I have a humble request to make to the American Idol producers. You know all that great stuff that's working across the pond? Work on emulating it for Season 9 of American Idol because it can revitalize the show more than anything you've done so far, including Kara, duets, and a "Top 13". See what's working. Let Ryan Seacrest be unscripted, or better yet, get Ant and Dec to host the show. And work on making it fun again. Please.

I've been guilty of blogging less lately, which is partially because I've been so busy trying to get work stuff wrapped up before Odyssey. I'm going to Wiscon next week, then BEA, and then off to Odyssey. Between all of those, I've managed to cram in two months worth of doctor and dentist appointments, along with things like, you know, hair cuts. Yeah, lots to do.

But it's more of also, I haven't really found anything worth talking about lately. That's not to say that there isn't stuff happening in the world: a sample of yesterday's lunch conversation with my dad and my husband involved the difference between mortars and artillery shells, what's happening in Pakistan, where the nukes are in Pakistan and do we *really* not know where they are (we know), the economy, and the economic health of book publishing. But most news nowadays is pretty bad news. We've got swine flu, a depressed economy, people buying fewer books, and yeah, business is SLOW.

Publishers are buying very, very conservatively, and it's taking way longer than usual to get book deals. Let me give you an example of several books that I have out at major publishers.

Book A was sent out to publishers in February 2008. A major publisher told me they wanted to buy the book in August 2008. It is now May 2009. We are still waiting for the book offer, which has been delayed beyond belief. Fifteen months since Book A left my desk.

Book B was also sent out to publishers in February 2008. A major publisher told me they wanted to buy the book in ~November 2008. They don't have the money to buy the book, right now. Check back in April 2009! I dutifully checked back in April 2009. Still waiting... Fifteen months also, since Book B left my desk.

Book C was sent out to publishers in August 2008. No bites, just passes on it from them. It's still out at a few publishers. Nine months since Book C left my desk.

Book D is in the same situation as Book C. Also nine months since it left my desk.

And I'm sure I am not the only agent who is experiencing this slowness. This feeling of wading through molasses, trying to make sales in an economy where people are hunkering down and buying less books, and consequently, publishers are purchasing less books too.

At the moment, I love all my foreign rights agents because they are helping me get the existing books I've sold into other markets. Which is wonderful. It's superb! They're making money for my authors and for me. It's great. They all deserve chocolate and hugs and fancy steak.

In the meantime, I continue to remain hunkered down, and submit new books to editors... I don't stop doing business, but geez... it really is like molasses sometimes. =)

Someone just asked in a comment whether I represent minors, and as I can't find which post that's on, I figured I might as well reply about it.

Yes, I represent minors.

In fact, I currently represent a lovely teenager whose name is Tori Borland, and she's currently working on revisions of a fantasy novel for me. See my clients page for more details about her; she's an interesting person. =)

In general, I have nothing against representing minors. I think teenagers can be just as good writers as adults, and in some cases, better writers. But I will put in the strong caveat that many teenagers aren't great writers... YET.

By and large, when you're a teenager, you don't have the life experience to write a good novel. You also don't have the writing chops to do it. There are rare exceptions to the rule, but most teenagers are working through beginning writing issues while they're still minors. I wrote a ton when I was a teenager, including the first 40,000 words of a novel, but it was utter crap.

Most of what you write as a teenager will be utter crap; it's the simple truth.

But that doesn't mean you should stop writing because every bit of practice you get is going to help you later on. The first novel you write won't be a good one, but the sixth or seventh novel you write might just be the one that finds you an agent. And in the meantime, write novels. Send them to agents. Write short stories. Send those to magazines. Collect rejections, while you get better. I got my first one from F&SF at the age of sixteen. =)

Officially!

Because Nathan, as much as I love you, you're beating me right now in Brenda Novak's Auction for Diabetes Research.

And LIT SOUP readers, can we let that happen? I don't think so!

This is Nathan's auction.

This is MY auction.

Go bid on me, not him! =)

(Nathan, you know I love you, but I want to win. And bidding on both of us raises money for a good cause. XOXO)

There is absolutely no denying that Star Trek, as a franchise, has directly or indirectly launched the careers of hundreds of science fiction authors. Whether working in film or publishing, all of these people are drawn towards this idealistic story of a ship that can go anywhere; of characters that are enticing and sexy and flawed; and of a federation that exists in our own galaxy.

And now, we have the origin story of the franchise, on film for what I think is the first time. The trailer is embedded below. Give it a watch, and then let's continue our discussion. =)



Now doesn't that look good? Doesn't it look good having Chris Pine play James T. Kirk, as a young and handsome man on the verge of greatness? Zachary Quinto (a CMU alum!) is scarily accurate as Spock. And the rest of the cast and the movie looks great. On Rotten Tomatoes, it has a 94% positive rating, which is very, very rare on that website. And it opens May 8th. Tomorrow!

I was raised on Star Trek: The Next Generation. My parents have always been science fiction fans, and it's through their influence that I discovered a love of it. I remember being seven years old, when one of the TNG episodes scarred me for life. We all have those moments. Those shows that you see that scare you to death, but make you want to come back for more.

I don't remember much about the episode, but I can tell you this: There was a transporter beam incident. There was an alien, who looked very much like a nun (but was not a nun), and she went through the transporter beam. And she never came back out. She disintegrated, but never came back. And to my seven year old brain, this was startling and amazing and very, very scary.

But I stuck with the series. I think I've been to see every Star Trek movie from VI onwards, in the theaters with my parents. The movie that had the Borg Queen was particularly terrifying; I believe my father left the theater having no circulation left in his arm, due to my clutching his hand so hard. =) And despite its flaws and its weirdness, I've always loved the bits of it that rung true to me. Even the disintegrating nun-alien.

FEDERATIONS edited by John Joseph Adams builds on the tradition of Star Trek and Star Wars. It starts off with the premise of "intergalactic federations", and then proceeds to let the authors go with free rein. There' s some good, somewhat obscure reprints in it, but the true strength of the anthology is in the stunning originals. When Yoon Ha Lee, Catherynne Valente, and Genevieve Valentine get their hands on the theme of federations, they produce some truly amazing work. It's now available in your local bookstores, and currently shipping from Amazon.

My advice? Go see Star Trek, and buy FEDERATIONS to read--it'll tide you over until we get the next Star Trek movie. =)

I seem to have forgotten to write down what books I've read recently and I am convinced that I'm up to 22 total for the year... except my brain is completely blanking now, so I'm just going to write down the two I remember. =(

19. MIDNIGHT NEVER COME by Marie Brennan
This was a lovely Elizabethan fantasy with dark fairies and a very good court setting. I liked it a great deal, but not quite as much as I liked her earlier books, DOPPLEGANGER and WARRIOR AND WITCH.

20. GRACELING by Kristin Cashore
An absolutely incredible, stand-out fantasy book. I don't care that it was published as YA; I adored it. It made me cry. So few books make me cry. It was simply splendid. Run, don't walk, and go buy it now.

Surfacing for a bit here, as I'm snowed under with work and getting everything wrapped up before Odyssey... which is slightly complicated by the fact that I have strep (not flu, we checked!), but onwards I go... =)

Anyway, hello, A (or Ad?), YOU HAVE WON SECOND PLACE IN THE LIT SOUP BIRTHDAY CONTEST FOR 2009. Please contact me. I have not heard from you yet, and I cannot mail books out to the third place winner, until I know which book package you are taking.

Thank you!

I have been slightly remiss in posting this again on May 1st, but as it's May 3rd, here we go...

As part of Brenda Novak's auction for diabetes research, I am offering a critique of a proposal! That's a synopsis and the first three chapters. I'm currently going for the very affordable rate of $260! =) So bid now!

Raise money for a good cause!

Like I wasn't going to make a post about this? =)

I don't have sage advice to offer; I'm not a trained medical professional nor do I specialize in emergency preparedness. I am not advocating panic in the least, since the strain seems to be currently able to be effectively treated in the United States with antiviral medications.

But I do have a brain, and I thought that since enough time had passed that it was good to offer some thoughts on this...

I want to analyze this outbreak from a numbers perspective. Bear with me on this. I am using data from the CDC report from 2007-2008.

Seasonal influenza in the United States is tracked by the CDC. Not all suspected cases are tested because there are simply too many. Last year, for the 2007-2008 flu season, the CDC reports the following:

225,239 specimens tested
39,827 of those specimens were positive
18% of specimens tested were positive. That's a fairly large sample size, but not the entire sample size; this is only the sample that actually underwent laboratory testing at a CDC certified viral laboratory.

We will take a tiny, tiny leap here, and assume that the number of pediatric influenza deaths the CDC reported for the 2007-2008 season is based on specimens that underwent laboratory testing.

The number of pediatric deaths from influenza for 2007-2008 is 83.
83 deaths/39,827 positive specimens=0.21% chance of death for children with seasonal flu.

Kids are fairly susceptible to the flu, but we can get a better estimate on normal mortality of the flu for EVERYONE from the CDC's statement that the epidemic threshold was exceeded using their 122 Cities Mortality system. It peaked last year at 9.1% mortality (or cause of death in the people that died during flu season), but remember, that's not based on actual laboratory testing--it's based on a survey of death certificates in those 122 cities and which ones note the cause of death as either pneumonia or influenza. Not the most reliable of methods, but it's the data we've got.

Let's assume though, that normal chance of dying from the flu isn't that much. Other pages on the CDC site state that about 16 million people each year are diagnosed with influenza-like illness (not verified all the time by lab tests), and of those, using our fun mortality systems, we get that approximately 36,000 die each year.

Rough, rough chance of dying from the flu then is 36,000 deaths/16 million cases=0.225% overall. Remember that number, since we're going to come back to it shortly. Please note that it's statistically not that far off the pediatric mortality rate for last year, which we calculated at 0.21%.

Now let's hop over to our neighbor to the south, Mexico, which has a large number of suspected cases and some number of confirmed cases. We're not going to even bother with "suspected" cases here, we're going to use the numbers that have actually undergone laboratory analysis, according to the World Health Organization. See the NY Times article here for more information about this set of numbers.

In Mexico, they tested 908 cases for swine flu.
Of those 908 cases, only 397 cases turned out to have the particular influenza A H1N1 variant we're calling swine flu.
397 positive specimens/908 specimens tested=43.72% infection rate

Please compare that number to our regular seasonal flu infection rate of 18%.

On top of that, we also get the numbers that there have been 16 deaths out of those 397 specimens.

16 deaths/397 positive specimens=4.03% mortality rate in Mexico

Now, granted, we're dealing with a much smaller sample size than the total number of cases that were tested in the USA for the 2007-2008 seasonal influenza season. The mortality rate is likely to go way down, if they test more cases and figure the deaths against that.

We also have to take into account that Mexico doesn't really have a great infrastructure, and many of those deaths may have gone undiagnosed initially. So the medical care isn't as good there, compared to other places.

BUT... and this is the big "but" in all of this analysis.

Right now, it appears that swine flu is spreading like regular seasonal influenza. It's got a higher infection rate, but that's also based off of a smaller sample size. Statistics are hugely important here. Let's say for the sake of argument, that eventually the swine flu infection rate is found to be 18%. Common infection rate as we've established. And let's say also, that the swine flu mortality rate in Mexico is strongly influenced by their lack of medical care in certain areas of the country. Let's say, that if we didn't know about swine flu at all, and it developed in the US first, that it might have a 1% mortality rate given our much, much better medical care system infrastructure. So far we have no deaths, but that doesn't mean that there won't be deaths in the US and people are currently being uber-vigilant about any influeza symptoms.

16 million cases of influenza a year in the US x 1% mortality rate=160,000 deaths from swine flu, as opposed to the standard 36,000 deaths each season. In fact, if we're extra conservative, we can even say that maybe the US mortality rate will only go to 0.5%, which would mean 80,000 deaths instead of 36,000 deaths.

I'd like to point out that 80,000 is still a much larger number than 36,000. Those are still lives that can be potentially lost. Which is pretty much why the health authorities are ever-so-slightly concerned about swine flu....

.... because of the last thing, that might happen, which they always worry for.

Genetic mutations!

Flu viruses mutate as they pass from person to person. In some seasonal flu years, the viruses undergo more mutations, and that's why a flu year may be worse than normal. The mutations do a variety of things, including change how well the body's cells can defend themselves against the virus (the 1918 flu pandemic had a doozy of a mutation), and how easily communicable the strain of the virus is.

So far, no mutations. Which is a good thing. =)

But if there were to be mutations, they could do a lot of unexpected things to the strain of swine flu virus. Not all of them good. Most of them bad. Including, as mentioned above, making the virus affect people with better immune systems (thus causing cytokine storms like in 1918) or it could make the virus pass from person to person more easily or it could just make it stick around in our bodies longer and be a bitch to cure.

We don't know what will happen--this may be nothing now, and then come back to hit us next year. It could be nothing forever. It could stay dormant in the flu virus strains for years, and then come back thirty years from now, as is the nature of diseases.

So it's nothing to worry about now--not unless there are mutations to the virus strain or we start having more deaths in the United States or the antiviral medications stop helping alleviate the symptoms. It's not a cause for panic, but I think it is necessary for you to understand the math behind it all, and to make your own informed decisions.

A 0.225% mortality rate isn't much. A 1% mortality rate still isn't great. The 1918 flu pandemic had a 2.5% mortality rate, when all was said and done, with the majority of those deaths being young healthy adults because of the mutation that caused the cytokine storms. And so I look at that 4.03% mortality rate in Mexico and I wonder... =)

Feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts.